It's Election Day, when we Americans put the oldest written Constitution in the world into practice and elect a new government.
Given everything that's happened in the last four years, I'm crossing my fingers and praying. I know George W. has hinted that he "feels the hand of the Lord on him" this time around... but I'm praying for John Kerry all the same.
I'm hoping that it will be John Kerry, decisively, by midnight. I wish that he was leading by 5-10 points in the polls this morning, but he isn't. I'll settle for margins of 10 electoral votes and one percent of the popular vote.
Indicators both serious and fanciful seem to favor Kerry. Incumbent Presidents generally lose when the Dow Jones Industrial Average loses more than 0.5% of its value during the month of October. It lost 0.52%. No incumbent President in 50 years has won after a loss by the Washington Redskins the weekend before the election. The Green Bay Packers pummeled the Redskins over the the weekend. George W. Bush had a slightly larger lead in the national polls four years ago than he does now, and lost the popular vote for President and only "won" the electoral vote by 552 votes in Florida. A children's poll by the Nickelodeon network which correctly picked the last four Presidential elections gives the race to Kerry handily, 57% to 43%.
Yet given that the hand of God is supposedly "in play" in the Presidential race this year, I'm not sure of anything at this point.
The thing that does give me comfort is this: indications are that Americans are going to show up at the polls in record numbers. The Constitution invites nearly everyone to the party every four years. It looks like this time, nearly everyone is going to show up. When it comes to picking a government, that can only be good.
on 2004-11-02 at 6:01 a.m.
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